Odds Are Long

He skipped a step in his analysis. How many times has it happened that a team got a starting caliber QB for veteran minimum?

He's trying to compare roster moves in completely different scenarios. Kyler is practically free for one year, literally every team would add them to their roster for this price and it's not a reflection on their roster. Kyler will cost significant money every other year going forward. All the other teams that have made the decision to move on from their QB have made that decision within the context of how much the QBs cost.

The cap math is different when you get something for free vs when you have to pay for it.

At the end of the year, the Vikings are going to have to decide if they want to pay Kyler $30M, $40M, $50M a year and they're going to compare that with how much JJM has progressed and how much he will cost per year, and that's a very different discussion than Kyler for free compared to JJM 10 games in.

This is exactly why I was frustrated with the Murray signing, not because he's only making $1.6 million, not because I don't think he can play, and not because of questions surrounding his fit, leadership, or work ethic.

My concern has always been about McCarthy's development.

As Seifert points out, he couldn't find another example of a Top-10 quarterback returning to the same team after a situation like this. That's what makes this so unique.

McCarthy's rookie injury couldn't have come at a worse time. He wasn't just sidelined from games; he lost an entire year of NFL practices, timing with his receivers, and the day-to-day development that young quarterbacks desperately need. Instead of learning how to play quarterback in the NFL, he spent his year learning how to rehab.

Then, when he finally earned the opportunity to start, he was coming off a major injury, something we routinely acknowledge even veteran players need a full season to truly recover from. On top of that, he dealt with the birth of his first child during the season, additional injuries, constant offensive line instability, Jordan Addison missing the first three games, Jefferson missing significant practice time in camp because of injury, and very little continuity with the players around him.

None of that excuses his inconsistencies. He still has plenty to improve. But context matters. Most young quarterbacks get a second season to build on what they learned in Year 1. McCarthy's "Year 1" was really his first season playing meaningful football in over two years after rehabbing a season-ending injury. That's why I wanted to see what that natural progression looked like before creating another hurdle for him to clear. Instead, the Vikings bring in an all-pro to compete against...as if he hasn't already had insurmountable challenges to overcome (despite a fan base that has written him off as well)...

Odds are long...so long that no one has ever done it before.

IceRatz16 wrote:

This is exactly why I was frustrated with the Murray signing, not because he's only making $1.6 million, not because I don't think he can play, and not because of questions surrounding his fit, leadership, or work ethic.
My concern has always been about McCarthy's development.
As Seifert points out, he couldn't find another example of a Top-10 quarterback returning to the same team after a situation like this. That's what makes this so unique.
McCarthy's rookie injury couldn't have come at a worse time. He wasn't just sidelined from games; he lost an entire year of NFL practices, timing with his receivers, and the day-to-day development that young quarterbacks desperately need. Instead of learning how to play quarterback in the NFL, he spent his year learning how to rehab.
Then, when he finally earned the opportunity to start, he was coming off a major injury, something we routinely acknowledge even veteran players need a full season to truly recover from. On top of that, he dealt with the birth of his first child during the season, additional injuries, constant offensive line instability, Jordan Addison missing the first three games, Jefferson missing significant practice time in camp because of injury, and very little continuity with the players around him.
None of that excuses his inconsistencies. He still has plenty to improve. But context matters. Most young quarterbacks get a second season to build on what they learned in Year 1. McCarthy's "Year 1" was really his first season playing meaningful football in over two years after rehabbing a season-ending injury. That's why I wanted to see what that natural progression looked like before creating another hurdle for him to clear. Instead, the Vikings bring in an all-pro to compete against...as if he hasn't already had insurmountable challenges to overcome (despite a fan base that has written him off as well)...
Odds are long...so long that no one has ever done it before.

I agree, everything you said tracks.

KO knew it as well ,and chose to go after Murray.

Why would he do that?

There's a "tell" in that, no one knows for sure what happened , but something impelled KO to change course and go after Murray.

IMHO if JJ and Murray are as good as they think they are,, this competition will bring out the best in both of them.

IceRatz16 wrote:

This is exactly why I was frustrated with the Murray signing, not because he's only making $1.6 million, not because I don't think he can play, and not because of questions surrounding his fit, leadership, or work ethic.
My concern has always been about McCarthy's development.
As Seifert points out, he couldn't find another example of a Top-10 quarterback returning to the same team after a situation like this. That's what makes this so unique.
McCarthy's rookie injury couldn't have come at a worse time. He wasn't just sidelined from games; he lost an entire year of NFL practices, timing with his receivers, and the day-to-day development that young quarterbacks desperately need. Instead of learning how to play quarterback in the NFL, he spent his year learning how to rehab.
Then, when he finally earned the opportunity to start, he was coming off a major injury, something we routinely acknowledge even veteran players need a full season to truly recover from. On top of that, he dealt with the birth of his first child during the season, additional injuries, constant offensive line instability, Jordan Addison missing the first three games, Jefferson missing significant practice time in camp because of injury, and very little continuity with the players around him.
None of that excuses his inconsistencies. He still has plenty to improve. But context matters. Most young quarterbacks get a second season to build on what they learned in Year 1. McCarthy's "Year 1" was really his first season playing meaningful football in over two years after rehabbing a season-ending injury. That's why I wanted to see what that natural progression looked like before creating another hurdle for him to clear. Instead, the Vikings bring in an all-pro to compete against...as if he hasn't already had insurmountable challenges to overcome (despite a fan base that has written him off as well)...
Odds are long...so long that no one has ever done it before.

So are u suggesting they should not have brought Murray in when he became available? Because if it wasn’t k1, it was going to be Mac Jones or someone of that ilk..

Something happened in between "we have our franchise qb" in house to where they couldn’t trust McCarthy to start unequivocally going into this year. That’s a big, big turn around from the coach.

Mattyman calls it a tell and I agree.

Sure it’s frustrating we’re going to have to wait to see what a yr2 looks like for 9, but can we fault the Vikings for accepting the gift of that qb for that salary after what happened in 25?

The kid had a 56 qbr and KOC is going to tell Jefferson, Addison, O'Neil, Darrisaw and AVG we’re passing on adding k1 to the offense?

Personally, I’d luv to have McCarthy turn out to be a franchise qb here. I don’t know if that’ll happen or not? It may not in 26. But let’s lace em up and see what fate has in store for this season.

IceRatz16 wrote:

As Seifert points out, he couldn't find another example of a Top-10 quarterback returning to the same team after a situation like this. That's what makes this so unique.

This is why I said the day Murray was signed that the McCarthy era, short as it was, was most likely over in Minnesota. Its not what I want and I don't think its the right direction after only 10 games, but I'm just a fan. The winner of this 'competition' is going to be looking over their shoulder all year and they'll need to come out of the gate well or the rafters will ring with the backup's name. The exact opposite of what is intended by KOC is what concerns me with happening. KOC is going exactly against his statement about teams failing young QBs, but here we are.

Some fans think this competition is the best thing, I don't agree for several reasons I've mentioned many times before. But I have to hope it works out and root for wins with QB1. If JJ sits the bench all year behind Kyler and never plays I think we'll be drafting another QB soon. I'll take it one game at a time.

I think the fact that it's never happened before is mostly meaningless. It's never happened before where a 1st round QB misses his entire rookie season due to injury. It also has never happened before that a 2X Pro Bowl QB in his prime has been available on the market for a rookie salary. It also has never happened before where a QB who won 14 games is allowed to walk, then wins a Super Bowl his first season elsewhere.

What does happen, quite often actually, is QBs who found success after their original team gave up on them. Steve Young, Stafford, Gannon, Brees, Mayfield, Darnold. Every one of those QBs did it on another team. And that may be the case with McCarthy too but it doesn't necessarily have to be.

I think one possibility is Murray missing 2 or 3 games and McCarthy coming in and just lighting shit up. I think Murray's going to have a great season in this offense, but McCarthy can give them something to think about when it comes to choosing their 2027 QB. Because it's mostly likely going to be Murray for big money or McCarthy on a rookie deal.

JJM’s path thus far reminds me a lot of Drew Brees’s. Brees sat most of his first year, but the struggle was real for him once he was out of the gate. JJM has the talent to be great, but is plagued by the same kind of inconsistency Brees had adapting to the NFL. I have faith the kid can get on the right track.

Havoc wrote:

JJM’s path thus far reminds me a lot of Drew Brees’s. Brees sat most of his first year, but the struggle was real for him once he was out of the gate. JJM has the talent to be great, but is plagued by the same kind of inconsistency Brees had adapting to the NFL. I have faith the kid can get on the right track.

Yeah, I don't think many people realize just how bad Brees was his first two seasons as a starter. 27 TDs, 31 INTs, passer rating in the low 70s. He was crap. Interesting thing about him, though, is that he really started to put it together in San Diego before he went to Nawlins.

MaroonBells wrote:

Yeah, I don't think many people realize just how bad Brees was his first two seasons as a starter. 27 TDs, 31 INTs, passer rating in the low 70s. He was crap. Interesting thing about him, though, is that he really started to put it together in San Diego before he went to Nawlins.

Brees and Tomlinson were really starting to cook. I think that burned LT when Brees left for NO.

Canthony wrote:

Brees and Tomlinson were really starting to cook. I think that burned LT when Brees left for NO.

That would have been a hell of a backfield to build around...

StickierBuns wrote:

This is why I said the day Murray was signed that the McCarthy era, short as it was, was most likely over in Minnesota. Its not what I want and I don't think its the right direction after only 10 games, but I'm just a fan. The winner of this 'competition' is going to be looking over their shoulder all year and they'll need to come out of the gate well or the rafters will ring with the backup's name. The exact opposite of what is intended by KOC is what concerns me with happening. KOC is going exactly against his statement about teams failing young QBs, but here we are.
Some fans think this competition is the best thing, I don't agree for several reasons I've mentioned many times before. But I have to hope it works out and root for wins with QB1. If JJ sits the bench all year behind Kyler and never plays I think we'll be drafting another QB soon. I'll take it one game at a time.

If JJ continues to improve the way that he has. Teammates love him and he still holds the locker room, then KOC has the best of all worlds. Roll with Murray and if an injury happens or he doesn't come out well, then JJ has his chance. I see it like this, if JJ gets a chance for one of those reasons, JJ doesn't give the job back. That is how I am looking at this season. We'll see what happens.

purplefaithful wrote:

That would have been a hell of a backfield to build around...

Outside of Peterson, Tomlinson was by far my favorite RB to follow. Dude was electric. Chargers made a massive mistake with letting Brees go, but as MB said, he didn't start out well at all.

Canthony wrote:

Outside of Peterson, Tomlinson was by far my favorite RB to follow. Dude was electric. Chargers made a massive mistake with letting Brees go, but as MB said, he didn't start out well at all.

And there is a lesson to be learned in SD and (as MB points out) so many other teams that didnt hang in there with their young QB's.

I dont believe JJM won the right to start this year w/out winning the job, but I sure as hell dont want to lose him if he's got the goods in the long-run.

purplefaithful wrote:

And there is a lesson to be learned in SD and (as MB points out) so many other teams that didnt hang in there with their young QB's.
I dont believe JJM won the right to start this year w/out winning the job, but I sure as hell dont want to lose him if he's got the goods in the long-run.

I agree 100% that he deserved the Murray signing 10 times out of 10. Like I've said, don't lose the job or get injured Murray, you won't get it back.

StickierBuns wrote:

The winner of this 'competition' is going to be looking over their shoulder all year and they'll need to come out of the gate well or the rafters will ring with the backup's name.

The exact opposite of what is intended by KOC is what concerns me with happening. KOC is going exactly against his statement about teams failing young QBs, but here we are.

Some fans think this competition is the best thing, I don't agree for several reasons I've mentioned many times before. But I have to hope it works out and root for wins with QB1. If JJ sits the bench all year behind Kyler and never plays I think we'll be drafting another QB soon. I'll take it one game at a time.

I missed your reasoning, what were they?

Havoc wrote:

JJM’s path thus far reminds me a lot of Drew Brees’s. Brees sat most of his first year, but the struggle was real for him once he was out of the gate. JJM has the talent to be great, but is plagued by the same kind of inconsistency Brees had adapting to the NFL. I have faith the kid can get on the right track.

This is actually a better comparison than many people realize.

Drew Brees wasn't an instant success either. He sat behind Doug Flutie as a rookie, then struggled in his first years as a starter. Through his first two seasons starting, he threw 28 TDs and 31 INTs, was benched in favor of Flutie, and many people questioned whether he was ever going to become a franchise quarterback.

Then the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers. Most people viewed Brees as a placeholder. Instead of folding, the competition seemed to bring out the best in him. He responded with the best football of his career to that point and earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors.

Then, just as his career was taking off, he suffered the devastating shoulder injury that almost nobody thought he'd fully recover from. Miami's doctors failed him, New Orleans took the chance, and the rest is history. However, the prior season, is actually when his career changed, after an injury to his left shoulder that almost no body knew about. He continued playing with an AC joint sprain or separated shoulder and played through it because he didn't want to give the reigns to Rivers for fear he'd never give it back.

The comparison to McCarthy isn't that they'll have the same career. It's that early struggles, injuries, and competition don't automatically define a quarterback's ceiling.

McCarthy lost essentially an entire developmental year to injury, then entered his first real NFL action after more than 600 days without meaningful football while coming off that rehab. That's an incredibly unusual path for a Top-10 pick. Yet people already want to declare what he is after 10 starts.

One thing Brees and McCarthy absolutely seem to share is their competitiveness. Brees refused to give up his job when Rivers arrived. McCarthy doesn't strike me as someone who's going to hand the job to Kyler Murray either. Guys wired that way tend to keep improving because they simply refuse to accept that they've peaked.

If history has taught us anything, it's that quarterback development is rarely linear.

Another similarity that often gets overlooked is the transition both had to make from college to the NFL.

They didn't play in identical offenses. Brees came from Purdue's spread attack while McCarthy played in Michigan's run-first, pro-style system, but both entered NFL offenses that demanded far more from them than what they were routinely asked to do in college.

Brees had to adjust from Purdue's quick-tempo passing game to reading NFL defenses, working through full-field progressions, and operating a more sophisticated offense. McCarthy is facing a similar challenge. At Michigan, he was asked to be incredibly efficient and protect the football. In the NFL, he's expected to command the entire offense, process faster, make anticipation throws against disguised coverages, and carry much more of the burden.

That's a massive jump for any young quarterback, which is another reason I'm hesitant to draw sweeping conclusions after just 10 starts, especially when those 10 starts came after missing essentially two full years of meaningful football because of the injury.

Here's a good supporting article: https://www.outkick.com/nfl/profootballdoc-the-untold-drew-brees-shoulder-story

IceRatz16 wrote:

One thing Brees and McCarthy absolutely seem to share is their competitiveness. Brees refused to give up his job when Rivers arrived. McCarthy doesn't strike me as someone who's going to hand the job to Kyler Murray either. Guys wired that way tend to keep improving because they simply refuse to accept that they've peaked.

This

I do recall Brees having shoulder issues...I just couldn't remember where in his journey they occurred. He ended-up with a good hc and offensive mind in SP.

His one ring should have been Favre's...

The main difference with this comparison between Drew Brees and JJ McCarthy: Brees finished his career with 11,792 passing yards, ranking first in Big Ten history at the time. Threw 90 career passing touchdowns. Heisman Trophy finalist in 1999 and 2000. McCarthy threw for 2,991 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns in his career at Michigan. Huge difference. JJ needs development and reps, a commitment to growing his accuracy. That's where he's deficient. Is a QB competition helping or hindering that....you know, splitting reps? This is training camp and preseason, how close to real game action is that really? Its not. So how can this 'competition' be real? It can't be. The only way for a true competition is for these games to be real and they each play a game then the other plays the next game. That is laughable and of course would never, ever happen. K1 is going to start off being QB1 and he's already broken the ice by complaining about splitting reps in OTAs. Let's say JJ somehow, someway wins the QB1 job.....could you say with a straight face that its fair to Murray? 2-3 weeks or less in training camp, maybe one ridiculous preseason game when he's learning an offense? This is why this whole thing stinks for both guys.

I'd much rather KOC would have committed to one dude and not worry in the short term about QB2's feelings. If you somehow behind close doors feel, as Mike says he's heard from the team, that JJ is just 'journeyman material', cut the kid loose. Let someone else look at him with new eyes. But KOC knows better, because the whole team would lose its shit. But if that's how you feel, then it would be the right way to go regardless. IF. I don't agree with that, I think JJ still has really good potential, but its too late: the shit is on now.

If Murray doesn't light it up right out of the gate and continue to play well into the season, KOC deserves all the criticism fans and the media can muster. But do you think that its optimal to split reps for Murray and then expect him to hit the ground running against Green Bay in a brand new offense? Fans won't care: they'll howl for K1 if he plays great or howl for JJ if Kyler messes up. Fans are gonna fan.

Do you see how this whole setup sucks?