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Vikings' Astronomical 70% Blitz Rate Isn't a Gimmick

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Why Vikings' astronomical 70% blitz rate isn't a gimmick

EAGAN, Minn. -- If you do the same unusual thing every week, is it still unusual?

That's the question hovering over the Minnesota Vikings' defense, which is now in its fourth season of blitzing more than any other NFL team. It has gotten to the point where safety Harrison Smith, speaking last week on the "The Richard Sherman Podcast," wondered why a standard rush is classified as four pass rushers -- and that anything beyond it should be considered an exception.

"Was that decided when Walter Camp came up with football?" Smith said with a laugh.

The Vikings' ascension to one of the league's top defenses this season has coincided with a nearly unprecedented surge in their blitz rate. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores sent five or more pass rushers on 85.3% of the Indianapolis Colts' dropbacks in Sunday's 16-10 win at U.S. Bank Stadium, the second-highest blitz rate in the past 20 years of NFL games. And after posting a combined blitz rate of 44.9% during his first three seasons in Minnesota, Flores has pushed that rate to 69.9% this season.

To put those numbers in perspective, consider that no team has blitzed more than 59.9% of the time through Week 7 of a season, or 52.4% of the time over a full season, since ESPN Research began tracking pass rushes in 2006. The NFL average during that time period has been 28.9%. Speaking this week to reporters in Minnesota, Flores grinned widely when asked about it.

"I don't want to say we've normalized it," Flores said, "but we've run it enough that guys understand where the issues may be and what we need to do so that those spaces on the field in the pass game are covered up enough that hopefully the pressure can get there. And so there have certainly been some hard times with that. We've given up plays as well, but I think our guys, they feel comfortable playing an aggressive style."

In theory, the Vikings are vulnerable to explosive downfield plays if their opponents can get the ball over or through their suffocating presence on the line of scrimmage. The Vikings have allowed 10 gains of more than 30 yards, either via long passes or runs that broke through the line, tied for eighth most in the NFL. But those instances have seemed a fair tradeoff for the Vikings' work on the 330 other plays they have defended this season.

Entering Week 8, the Vikings continue to lead the NFL in nearly every defensive metric, from fewest points allowed (12.3) to opponent's QBR (49.7) to expected points allowed (50.8). They are tied for the lead in sacks (21), despite having already had their bye, and rank No. 2 in yards allowed per game (252.8). And because they surprise teams not by blitzing, but when they don't blitz, their defensive EPA is actually substantially better (40.6) when they send four or fewer rushers than when they send five or more (10.2).

That performance has come against what ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) considers the ninth-easiest schedule in the NFL, however, and the Vikings will face FPI's sixth-most difficult schedule the rest of the way. That begins Sunday at Ford Field, where the Vikings (6-0) will face the NFL's third-best offense by EPA in the 4-2 Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, Fox). Might it be time for Flores to mix up the playcalls?

"Anybody who's doing the same thing over and over again," Flores said, "inevitably somebody's going to catch it. There's a lot of really good coordinators in this league and really good teams. We're going to face one coming up."

To be fair, the Vikings have been playing themselves into circumstances that are conducive to successful blitzes. This week, coach Kevin O'Connell noted that Flores' work has triggered the kind of long down and distances that can shrink an offense's play selection.

The Vikings lead the NFL with eight sacks and a 53.6% completion percentage on first down, and their defensive rush success on first down (72%) ranks No. 2. As a result, their opponents are averaging 9.3 yards to go on second downs and 8.4 yards to go on third down.

Flores laughed and said "we'd still pressure if it was second-and-5 or second-and-3," but acknowledged that the long distance from the first down sticks has "put pressure on the offense to call a play or get into a set that they feel comfortable with assuming that they're probably going to get some pressure."

Another factor in setting up friendly blitz circumstances has been an NFL-high 2.83 offensive holding penalties per game against their opponents, who are forced to grab blitzers as they get close to the quarterback. That also speaks to the Vikings' comfort level in Flores' scheme.

Of the 11 Vikings who have started most of the games this season, all of them are in at least their second year in the defense and nine are in their third or fourth. There isn't much hesitation visible on the video of their games.

"We see those conversations about the blitz rates," Smith told Sherman, "and everybody thinks it's wild. And rightfully so. It is wild. ... [But] I was there kind of from the start and almost part of the experiment in a way. It doesn't feel crazy. It looks [like that] when you look at the numbers of pressuring with more than four essentially.

"There's value in doing it so many times because you build comfort in it and it just allows you to see the game a little bit different."

LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN

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#1 · Oct 29, 8:26 AM
EC
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it is a gimmick that is working. it wont work in the playoffs if they even get that far.

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#2 · Oct 29, 10:18 AM CT
greediron
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One interesting thing in my mind, they tend to blitz more on 1st and 2nd down. So I can only surmise the blitz is not just to pressure the passer, but also a run blitz. They are coming for anything that moves. In the past, the book on beating this was to run the ball. Teams haven't had much success there either.

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#3 · Oct 29, 10:31 AM CT
JustInTime
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I’m looking forward to the alternate broadcast that tries to show on screen what coverage and who the blitzers are. I’m predicting a meltdown.

“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#4 · Oct 29, 10:34 AM CT
JustInTime
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“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#5 · Oct 29, 11:10 AM CT
JustInTime
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“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#6 · Oct 29, 11:18 AM CT
MA
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eckman wrote:

it is a gimmick that is working. it wont work in the playoffs if they even get that far.

Chris Rock Reaction GIF

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#7 · Oct 29, 11:27 AM CT
JustInTime
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“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#8 · Oct 29, 2:33 PM CT
EC
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MAD GAINZ wrote:

you will see.

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#9 · Oct 29, 3:04 PM CT
JustInTime
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“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#10 · Oct 29, 6:21 PM CT
greediron
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Straight Cash homey!

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#11 · Oct 29, 6:39 PM CT
JustInTime
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“Hell is empty and all the devils are here”

Shakespeare 

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#12 · Oct 29, 6:45 PM CT
Cricket
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Daronte Jones learns that leaving Vikings meant losing more than Brian Flores

When the Washington Commanders struck out on their bold bid to land Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores this offseason, they settled on his right-hand man.

But after some incredibly positive signs over the summer, Daronte Jones's future in Washington already looks unstable.

Jones earned a strong reputation as Flores' most trusted confidant. Minnesota's play-caller is notoriously demanding, so a promotion elsewhere was always likely. But after the Commanders hired Steve Wilkes as a consultant, it’s much harder to replicate the defense he left behind.

Daronte Jones is already fighting against the tide after Minnesota Vikings exit

With pressure mounting on Commanders head coach Dan Quinn, he chose upside over experience after missing his primary target. Jones was seen as the next best thing, and his vision intrigued Washington fans.

Things haven't started well.

The Commanders are 1-4-1, and Jones' defense is capitulating in the second half. There have been some nice moments, but putting it all together for four quarters is a major complication.

Now, the Commanders have brought in an experienced figure to help Jones.

Washington hired Wilks as a defensive consultant on Oct. 21. He'll help Jones with game-week planning over the next 11 games, though he will not be with the team on game days. Quinn said this was always in the pipeline, but the timing seemed off.

Pressure breaks pipes. The heat is on Quinn, and he's doing everything he can to turn the tide.

Commanders are finding out Vikings scheme cannot be replicated easily

Jones' early struggles are not uncommon for a first-year NFL play-caller. But they show that Flores' defense isn't easy to replicate.

You can have everything down from a scheme standpoint. You can have the same exotic pressure packages and blitz combinations, but you still have to manage games effectively.

Flores is a master strategist, both before and during games. He picks his spots perfectly, and everyone knows their assignments at all times.

And as Jones is finding out to his cost, personnel matters a lot.

Jones is reportedly happy to work with Wilks, and he is on board with the plan to move up. But if Quinn wanted it, he didn't really have much choice.

Daronte Jones and Brian Flores are heading down different paths this season

The Commanders believed enough in Jones to give him a shot. Flores was their bold target, but the Vikings were always confident they could keep their guy. They had to pay a premium, but based on the first six games, he's been worth every cent.

There is no doubt Jones could succeed if he gets time. Even so, the Commanders are learning that imitation isn't always the best form of flattery.

Especially if you don't have the real thing leading the charge.

Jones is a good coach. The Vikings would probably welcome him back with open arms if things fall flat in Washington. And if Flores lands a head-coaching gig during the 2027 cycle, Jones might be his first call.

That's for the future. For now, Flores is spearheading Minnesota's surge, leading the NFL's best defense on the league's only remaining undefeated team.

As for Jones? He's in danger of being undermined, even though Quinn promised him carte blanche to run the defense as he sees fit.

It's funny how things work out sometimes.

LIVE WELL ~ LOVE MUCH ~ LAUGH OFTEN

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#13 · Oct 31, 11:17 AM CT
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