Lions are 3 point favorites vs Minnesota next game

JimmyinSD wrote:

Flores has done well against the Lions, however Goff is hitting 83% against the blitz this year... something is going to break. Imo unless the O can put at least 3 in the end zone, we lose this one.

I think he was pretty elite last year as well, except for those 2 games.

pattersaur wrote:

Yep. I said it in another thread too but until some team solves the riddle that is our defense, I wouldn't bet against us in any game.
What Flores is doing reminds me a bit of when Philly first unveiled the tush push. It was so effective and borderline unstoppable that it helped them win the Super Bowl. Over time teams adapted and found ways to defend it (Flores himself had an innovative and effective counter), but until the code gets cracked I like our chances if the defense can stay healthy.

I don’t think there is solving, the D is constantly evolving. Maybe you catch them a couple times but a long term solution doesn’t seem likely.

I don’t think our defense is something that you can crack, but it is highly aggressive in that it leaves holes for you to exploit under the idea that the pressure will get there first. It’s also highly aggressive in run defense where everyone is on the line like the 8 in the box defenses that defended AD, which if the RB breaks through the first wave there might not be a second level to stop them, just maybe a singular deep safety. I think good offenses are going to be able to get chunk plays against us. If a team can stack a couple of chunk plays into the same drive, that is likely to turn into points.

I think the teams that will beat us will get enough explosive plays in a game to get TDs. I think they will be able to run the ball well enough to minimize the total number of hits their QB takes. I think they’ll avoid turnovers. I wouldn’t expect them to be perfect, just clean football and a enough explosive plays stacked together and maybe getting a few easy looks if we turn the ball over. I don’t think this is an impossible task for better offenses with smart QBs and smart OCs.

To reliably beat these better teams, I think we’re going to have to expect our offense to score 20ish points without a short field from a defensive turnover. Maybe we can beat them if our defense or special teams does even better even without quality offense.

Still -3.

Typically the biggest movement comes Sunday through Monday when the pros are taking advantage of soft lines and Friday through Saturday when amateur betters weigh in.

Still -3

I agree with those who say our defense is not something that can be "solved," per se. But it does have vulnerabilities in the gaps vacated by the blitz. It's not something you're going to hit often, but a couple times a game is sometimes all you need. Throw in an ill-timed turnover and suddenly we're on the losing end. That said, Goff was sacked 10 times the last two times we played him. In the 2nd game late in the year he was just clueless.

What I love to see are those 3rd and short plays when the Vikings fake the blitz and rush only four, and now all those gaps are filled and there's nowhere to throw. That's when the picks come. I've seen that frustrate veterans like Rodgers and Goff many times. That's the beauty of blitzing so much. When you don't do it, it can be an even bigger surprise.

MaroonBells wrote:

I agree with those who say our defense is not something that can be "solved," per se. But it does have vulnerabilities in the gaps vacated by the blitz. It's not something you're going to hit often, but a couple times a game is sometimes all you need. Throw in an ill-timed turnover and suddenly we're on the losing end. That said, Goff was sacked 10 times the last two times we played him. In the 2nd game late in the year he was just clueless.
What I love to see are those 3rd and short plays when the Vikings fake the blitz and rush only four, and now all those gaps are filled and there's nowhere to throw. That's when the picks come. I've seen that frustrate veterans like Rodgers and Goff many times. That's the beauty of blitzing so much. When you don't do it, it can be an even bigger surprise.

Our pressure rate when we don’t blitz is about the same as when we do. Which is loco.

CFIAvike wrote:

That line will move to at least 4.5 with the vast majority of public money going on the Lions. Deservedly so.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lions -6.5 by the time Kickoff happens

Gonna close 3 or 3.5 as I said.

MaroonBells wrote:

I agree with those who say our defense is not something that can be "solved," per se. But it does have vulnerabilities in the gaps vacated by the blitz. It's not something you're going to hit often, but a couple times a game is sometimes all you need. Throw in an ill-timed turnover and suddenly we're on the losing end. That said, Goff was sacked 10 times the last two times we played him. In the 2nd game late in the year he was just clueless.
What I love to see are those 3rd and short plays when the Vikings fake the blitz and rush only four, and now all those gaps are filled and there's nowhere to throw. That's when the picks come. I've seen that frustrate veterans like Rodgers and Goff many times. That's the beauty of blitzing so much. When you don't do it, it can be an even bigger surprise.

Whatever the equation will be today, part of it will have to include controlling Gibbs...

They've been very (very) good with that the last 2 games:

66 yards rushing/ 2.5 yards per carry